霧峰追風者

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：13 F ( 19 P )
名稱：Keni

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 04 月 04 日 11 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 04 月 08 日 20 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 04 月 09 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 04 月 12 日 05 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
斐濟氣象局 ( FMS )：75 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：85 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓：978 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
91P-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-14.4S-173.5E

霧峰追風者

JTWC 01Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5S 170.3E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SLIGHT FLARING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BELOW A REGION OF FAVORABLY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BUT WITH MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF
VANUATU. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION TRAVELLING
EAST TOWARDS FIJI IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WITH ONLY GFS AND NAVGEM
FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT AROUND TAU 48. IN ADDITION, THEY HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBILITY OF 91P INITIALLY HAVING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS,
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

FMS 編號13F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 050051 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F CENTRE {[1004HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S
AND 169.7E AT 050000UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.

BROAD CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 170.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051821Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING PRESENT, BUT BROAD, AND SEVERAL
POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAIR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS), OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF 91P, WITH MOST DEPICTING A
TRACK TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT GFS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARD.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, THE MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY SOONER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

FMS 強度升熱帶低壓並開始發報。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 060751 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13 CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 170.8E
AT 060600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE SLOW MOVING.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER
IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NORTH OF LLCC WITH ORGANISATION
POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING DT=1.5, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 15.3S 171.4E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 15.8S 171.9E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 16.1S 172.5E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 16.5S 173.5E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 02Z發佈TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 155 NM RADIUS OF 15.2S 171.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 171.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 171.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 171.4E, APPROXIMATELY
376 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062143Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LLCC AND SOME BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAIR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29
CELSIUS), OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 12 SPLIT BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE 91P WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN TAU 24 TO TAU 42. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.//
NNNN

t02436

命名Keni

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI ON APRIL 081315UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 170.1E AT 081200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELD DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.4S 171.2E MOV ESE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 16.8S 172.9E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.4S 174.6E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.7S 176.9E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 082000 UTC.

蜜露

評價這個氣旋-凱尼 (路徑在好肯定也當不了神)


1. Nora - 雖然有很高OHC支援 ,但是直接被50風切斬夭 , 成神不了.


2. 鯉魚 - 靠近風切幫助達到巔峰 , 之後觸碰40以上風切減弱 .. 觸碰50風切前有達到強颱. 巔峰正好是超強風切被包圍(中間最安全之地)
運氣好.

3. Keni - 南太氣旋的風王路徑天堂 , 但未來可能再度被40風切斬夭.






雖然增強快速 , OHC不夠,也很快就置換了 前方風切很強 , 大致上風切正好減弱 , 或許可能比Nora好點.




(Keni的環境遠比不過Nora , 不要以為這是北半球10月的天堂 , 在南半球4月風季已經要沒落了.不要妄想一個風王存在)
(尤其南太平洋4月環境還不如南印度洋)