2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.1S 78.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A
220233Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND BROAD SHALLOW BANDING, HOWEVER, A RECENT SCATSAT IMAGE
SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
(15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE
POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29 TO 30C
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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