霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 S
擾動編號日期：2018 年 04 月 21 日 07 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 04 月 26 日 16 時
96S-INVEST.15kts-1005mb-3.0S-77.4E

霧峰追風者

JTWC 07Z直接評級Medium，機構看好發展。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1S
77.2E, APPROXIMATELY 341 NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD TURNING WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 210354Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION WITH OBVIOUS BANDING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS) WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT. SSTS ARE WARM
(28-29C) WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
BEYOND TAU 30. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z發佈TCFA

周子堯@FB

霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-4-22 17:31
JTWC 06Z發佈TCFA

加個報文，回樓上大大:JTWC是07Z發佈的喔

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.1S 78.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A
220233Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND BROAD SHALLOW BANDING, HOWEVER, A RECENT SCATSAT IMAGE
SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
(15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE
POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29 TO 30C
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.