35W JMA:GW 本世紀首個35W 襲菲釀慘重傷亡 後併入帕布環流

Meow 發表於 2019-1-8 16:15

1月8日公佈126死26失蹤75傷。

jrchang5 發表於 2018-12-30 11:37

CWB判定於2918Z已降格為一低壓；JTWC並於3003Z發出Final Warning。
目前所處環境垂直風切偏強，不利發展，預計西行越過菲律賓巴拉望島後，將逐漸併入97W的外圍。未來是否會進入越南南方海域或泰國灣重新發展，仍有待繼續觀察。

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES INTO A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH ISOLATED, FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 292221Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS LIMITED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 35W IS LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT ADJACENT TO EXTENSIVE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 365NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA (INVEST 97W), THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR / NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT CROSSES PALAWAN ISLAND AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF INVEST 97W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 10 FEET.//