(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8S 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290158Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A RECENT 290200Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE 25KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN
25 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIMITED OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 60-84 HOURS WITH POOR TRACK
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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