90W低氣壓未來行進路線會相當類似於1977年的中度颱風賽洛瑪

已經抵達呂宋島東北方
因垂直風切太強，高低層呈現分離狀態
且太平洋高氣壓強盛，抑制對流發展
環境太糟糕，逐漸消散~

評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N
128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101015Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CMC AND GFS INDICATE WEAK MODEL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

菲律賓東方到台灣之間被副高牢牢控制，較為乾燥，
西南季風水氣又被南海99W接管，
整體來說要再進一步增強為颱風的機率偏低。

90W預計以普通低壓或熱帶低壓強度朝西北進行，
週三穿越巴士海峽或台灣附近，
有高壓擋著，路徑還算穩定～