(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N
128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101015Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CMC AND GFS INDICATE WEAK MODEL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.