桑達 發表於 2013-1-3 16:39
他恐怕是敖不過了....老J發FW了  被切成這樣

昨天很早就FW了
之前說過老J預測有機會重新增強, 現在05P再次被評為LOW了
老J認為05P已轉變為副熱帶氣旋, 但強度仍有40-45kts, 並有跡象顯示會繼續轉為溫帶氣旋
(評為LOW可能代表還有一點點機會轉回熱帶氣旋吧 ?)

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 167.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1S 168.2E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 03259 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY WITH THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE A WARM FRONT AND COLD DRY AIR WRAPPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS POSITIONED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES IT IS TRANSITING TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 988 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

他恐怕是敖不過了....老J發FW了  被切成這樣

風切果然可怕, JTWC已把強度下調至45kts了
值得注意它的路徑變化, 後期副高重建, 會令05P折西
老J預測在折西後可以稍微重新增強, 但05P能抵抗這麼強的風切嗎?

風眼不明顯 要當四級颱風有限 紅色圈圈的是颱風

眼睛又變的模糊了...