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Name: Tropical Low Details:
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IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1341 UTC 24/12/2013 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 128.5E Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km] Movement Towards: southeast [136 deg] Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h] Central Pressure: 1002 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5 Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km] FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +06: 24/1800: 13.0S 128.5E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1000 +12: 25/0000: 13.3S 128.4E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 1000 +18: 25/0600: 13.7S 128.0E: 065 [125]: 035 [065]: 998 +24: 25/1200: 14.0S 127.6E: 080 [145]: 035 [065]: 998 +36: 26/0000: 14.5S 125.3E: 100 [180]: 025 [045]: 1005 +48: 26/1200: 14.5S 123.4E: 130 [240]: 025 [045]: 1004 +60: 27/0000: 14.3S 121.9E: 170 [315]: 025 [045]: 1003 +72: 27/1200: 14.5S 120.9E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 1000 +96: 28/1200: 16.1S 118.8E: 200 [370]: 055 [100]: 986 +120: 29/1200: 17.8S 115.8E: 290 [535]: 075 [140]: 970 REMARKS: Current position is fair, based on animated infrared imagery and supplemented by microwave imagery. Initial classification of 1.5 was assigned at around 23/18Z. During the day, convection persisted through the diurnal minimum with a DT of 1.5 maintained, based on a curved band pattern with a 0.2-0.3 wrap. During the last 6 hours, deep convection has diminished considerably with structure harder to identify. Based on latest infrared imagery a DT of 1.5 was assigned on a 0.2-0.3 wrap, however a FT of 1.0 based on the MET was used. The CI has been held at 1.5. Visible and microwave images over the last 24 hours have depicted that this is a small circulation. The low is located in a favourable environment under the upper level ridge and in combination with an approaching mid latitude trough to the west there is good equatorward and poleward outflow. The low is surrounded by deep moist air. CIMSS vertical wind shear at 06Z was 10-15kt northerly, which has explained why the deeper convection during the last 6-12 hours has been displaced southwards of the LLCC. The low is expected be slow moving over the next 6-12 hours before taking a south to southwesterly track under the influence of a mid level ridge to the east. There is significant variation between models in the structure of the system after crossing the Kimberley coast into the Indian Ocean, due to differences in modelling the interactions of the system with a weak low near Indonesia. Given that this is a small system in a favourable environment, a development of 1 to 1.5 T numbers per day is expected. It is possible TC intensity will be reached by 25/06Z or 25/12Z, near the north Kimberley coast. The system should then weaken below cyclone intensity later on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as it crosses the coast. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC. |
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IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0801 UTC 24/12/2013 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 12.4S Longitude: 128.3E Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km] Movement Towards: south [180 deg] Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h] Central Pressure: 1003 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5 Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km] FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +06: 24/1200: 12.7S 128.3E: 035 [070]: 025 [045]: 1002 +12: 24/1800: 13.1S 128.2E: 050 [090]: 030 [055]: 999 +18: 25/0000: 13.5S 128.0E: 060 [115]: 040 [075]: 994 +24: 25/0600: 14.0S 127.6E: 075 [135]: 040 [075]: 994 +36: 25/1800: 14.9S 125.7E: 095 [175]: 030 [055]: 1001 +48: 26/0600: 15.0S 123.5E: 115 [210]: 030 [055]: 1000 +60: 26/1800: 15.1S 122.1E: 135 [245]: 030 [055]: 1000 +72: 27/0600: 15.0S 120.4E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1000 +96: 28/0600: 15.9S 120.1E: 195 [365]: 050 [095]: 988 +120: 29/0600: 17.2S 117.8E: 285 [525]: 070 [130]: 973 REMARKS: Current position is fair, based on animated visible imagery and Berrimah radar. Initial classification of 1.5 was assigned at around 23/18Z. During the last 6 hours, Dvorak analysis has been based on curved band pattern with 0.2-0.3 wrap, also giving a DT of 1.5. Convection has persisted today throughout the diurnal minimum. Visible and microwave images over the last 24 hours have depicted that this is a small circulation. The low is located favourable under the upper level ridge and in combination with an approaching mid latitude trough to the west, there is good equatorward and poleward outflow. The low is surrounded by deep moist air. CIMSS vertical wind shear at 06Z was 10-15kt northerly, which has explained why the deeper convection during the last 6-12 hours has been displaced southwards of the LLCC. The low is expected to take a south to southwesterly track under the influence of a mid level ridge to the east.A number of models depict a weaker system and therefore move the low in a more SW to W track under the influence of a lower lever ridge to the S. Given that this is a small system in a favourable environment, a development of 1 to 1.5 T numbers per day is expected. It possible TC intensity will be reached by 24/18Z or 25/00Z, near the north Kimberley coast. The system should then weaken below cyclone intensity later on Wednesday as it crosses the coast. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC. |
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升評Medium THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 129.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DARWIN RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 240050Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE SAME STR IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |
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本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2013-12-24 12:13 編輯 BOM TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAPName: Tropical Low Details:
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JTWC以評Low...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 129.4E, |
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好吧 EC似乎認為他會直接撞進澳洲 不會發展 但是在它撞完 後面會緊接蹦出一支胖子 |
組圖打開中，請稍候......