被風切切死了....
CPHC發出最後一報

WTPA41 PHFO 150244
TCDCP1

REMNANTS OF PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 PM HST THU JAN 14 2016

DATA FROM THE 2117 UTC ASCAT METOP-B PASS...AS WELL AS FROM LAST
NIGHT/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
TODAY...SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PALI HAS BECOME
HIGHLY DISRUPTED AND ELONGATED...AND IT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE TO
DEFINITIVELY LOCATE A CLOSED CENTER. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DECLARED A REMNANT AT THIS TIME. THE ASCAT PASS DID SHOW A FEW
BELIEVABLE 25 KT WIND BARBS LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
PALI AND SO THAT IS BEING USED FOR THE INTENSITY. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRESSURE PERTURBATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF PALI DISSIPATING ON THE EQUATOR...
BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT PALI
COULD INSTEAD HEAD WESTWARD AND REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS AWAY FROM
THE SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY...BUT THE
DISTURBED AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY ON PALI UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z  1.7N 173.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

部分數值看好將重新增強，CPHC表示還要再觀望....

Last Warning?感覺他過不了界了...

WTPA41 PHFO 142042
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
1100 AM HST THU JAN 14 2016

IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT PALI
IS EVEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANYMORE. THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES SHOWED THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED...APPEARING MORE
LIKE A NNW-TO-SSE ORIENTED TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE RECENT BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHAT MIGHT STILL BE A LOW LEVEL
CENTER CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING PALI AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS
FROM HFO...JTWC...AND SAB AS WELL AS THE UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS IN
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS ARE THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING A 30 KT
INTENSITY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS TRACK EVEN CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH FOR SOME TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z  2.0N 172.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  15/0600Z  1.8N 173.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

向日葵八號 台灣時間稍早5點40分拍攝到的Pali 風眼相當清晰
而目前結構看似受到了乾空氣的干擾 底層傷得不輕
但部分模式仍預測 這個颶風後期有可能達到高強度

真是不得了 , 底層比之前還好. 風眼也很小..這次應該是小眼

上次是用卷的. 這次應該是塌的.







不過最近的時間點,底層有出問題了. 右邊底層破了
最近的高層來看. 風眼快要賭了
(上圖這張高層是4小時前最好的時間)




最近風切變強了. 偏南移動.開始減弱
後期進入西太 數值顯示重新加強

新報上調至80kts
預測到換日線還有60kts
也就是說成為今年西太第一颱的機率增加
可以來開譯名競猜了

風眼轉出來了，03Z正報給出75節，Pali成為中太史上最早的颶風，預測五天後開始接近換日線

WTPA41 PHFO 120259
TCDCP1

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 PM HST MON JAN 11 2016

IT IS RATHER SURREAL TO BE SAYING THIS IN JANUARY...BUT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH
THE RAGGED EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN THE EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE PARTICIPATING AGENCIES WERE
UNANIMOUS AT 4.5 AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT GAVE 5.1. THUS...NOT ONLY IS
PALI NOW A HURRICANE...BUT THE EARLIEST RECORDED HURRICANE IN A
CALENDAR YEAR IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
HELD BY EKEKA IN JANUARY OF 1992. YET ANOTHER RECORD TO STACK ON THE
EVER-GROWING PILE OF RECENT RECORDS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE ONGOING
STRONG EL NINO.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS 105/5. A
LARGE...STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED BETWEEN WAKE ISLAND AND
THE MARIANA ISLANDS IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPART AN INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION ON THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONG RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TURNING THE HURRICANE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 24 AND 72
HOURS. A MORE TYPICAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LEANS TOWARD A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND
THE HWRF IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS OWING TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION WILL BEGIN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE ECMWF IS EXHIBITING SOME UNUSUAL BEHAVIOR IN THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...AS IT TAKES THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO
THE EQUATOR THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CHALLENGING. MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KNOTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IMPACTING PALI
MUCH...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY DRIFT IT HAS EXPERIENCED
TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C...AND THE
WATER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL. SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE EASING DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE SHEAR VECTOR. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE PROXIMITY OF PALI TO THE
EQUATOR MAY INHIBIT REINTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z  8.1N 171.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  12/1200Z  7.5N 171.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  13/0000Z  6.4N 171.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  13/1200Z  5.3N 171.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  14/0000Z  4.5N 172.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  15/0000Z  3.2N 174.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  16/0000Z  2.8N 176.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/0000Z  2.7N 178.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD