s6815711

02Z評級給至Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.6S 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242200Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION. THE ABOVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONE REMAINS INLAND, SOME CONSOLIDATION HAS STARTED TO OCCUR. THE
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE WYNDHAM RADAR LOOP
DEPICTS A DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA MOVING OVER WATER
IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS - BASED ON NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS - ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB

JTWC評級為LOW