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yuloucn|2011-3-26 08:57
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WTPS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 179.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 179.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.9S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.0S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.5S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.4S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 34.8S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 251757Z
SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TC 19P HAS SLOWLY TURNED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS FROM A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 48, TC BUNE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72 IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.// |
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