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(↑此圖為自動更新)


(↑此圖為自動更新)

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TCFA

yuloucn

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13F. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 12:38pm on Wednesday the 23rd of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI AND
KADAVU.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE LAU GROUP, LOMAIVITI
GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 1003 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
LAKEBA OR ABOUT 465 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT MIDDAY TODAY. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 KM/HR. IT IS INTENSIFYING
AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION  MAY CAUSE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER LAU,
LOMAIVITI AND  KADAVU IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR LAU, LOMAIVITI AND KADAVU :
FRESH AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
45 KM/HR TO 55 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 75 KM/HR FROM TOMORROW. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES
AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
.THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS.
FOR LAU WATERS, KORO SEA AND KADAVU WATERS: SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.  WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND MAY INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. HEAVY
SWELLS DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
WILL BE ISSUED AT 6PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

cas98709

已升格為19P BUNE
未來移動速度緩慢 強度上看CAT.1

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C1
是風眼嗎?

yuloucn

南太平洋热带气旋BUNE的中心3月25日14时位于斐济苏瓦（SUVA）南偏东方大约530公里的洋面上，就是南纬22.4度、西经179.2度，中心附近最大风力12级（33米/秒），中心最低气压970百帕。

预计，BUNE将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度将继续加强。

yuloucn

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/0744 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4S
179.2W AT 250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS BY 260600 UTC.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A
SLIGHT SOUTHEAST TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND, GIVING DT=4.5, MET=4.5 AND
PT=4.0. THEREFORE T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 22.9S 179.5W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.2S 179.9W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.2E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.4S 178.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 251400 UTC.

yuloucn

WTPS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 179.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 179.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.9S 179.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 25.0S 179.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 26.5S 179.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 30.4S 176.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 34.8S 175.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 251757Z
SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TC 19P HAS SLOWLY TURNED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS FROM A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 48, TC BUNE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72 IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.//