周子堯@FB

JTWC評級MEDIUM

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 132E, APPROXIMATELY 306
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081236Z MHS (METOP-A)  89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 080054Z (METOP-B) ASCAT PASS INDICATES
20-25 KNOTS (WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29C) SSTS, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE,
OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

s6815711

05Z評級提升至Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S
133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071256Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071258Z METOP-A
ASCAT PASS INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY
MARGINAL WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 20-25 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INDICATES STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.