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JTWC繼續發佈TCFA
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S 132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 131.7E, APPROXIMATELY
175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z AMSU-B METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP CONVECTION INTO IT. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KTS); OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD UPPER OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT ARE DIVIDED AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE
TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21
PGTW 101730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
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