評級Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N
168.5E, APPROXIMATELY 63 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVERLYING CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. A 010426Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CAPTURES THE SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL
BANDING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM APPROXIMATELY 60NM AWAY SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE, AND A PRESSURE DROP OF 2MB
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST
96W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GENERAL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION, THOUGH IT IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN
INTERACTION WITH A CIRCULATION TO THE WEST AND EVENTUAL
INTENSIFICATION SEVERAL DAYS LATER, WHILE OTHERS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
CIRCULATION OR DEVELOP INVEST 96W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.