霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 W
擾動編號日期：2018 年 05 月 01 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 05 月 00 日 00 時
96W-INVEST.15kts-1010mb-9.0N-169.0E

t02436

評級Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N
168.5E, APPROXIMATELY 63 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVERLYING CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. A 010426Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CAPTURES THE SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL
BANDING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM APPROXIMATELY 60NM AWAY SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE, AND A PRESSURE DROP OF 2MB
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST
96W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GENERAL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION, THOUGH IT IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN
INTERACTION WITH A CIRCULATION TO THE WEST AND EVENTUAL
INTENSIFICATION SEVERAL DAYS LATER, WHILE OTHERS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
CIRCULATION OR DEVELOP INVEST 96W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級降低LOW

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 168.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 67
NM WEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LIMITED DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER BROAD CYCLONIC
INFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED MESOVORTEX. A 012218Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CAPTURES THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, AND INDICATED
ONLY ONE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM
APPROXIMATELY 60NM AWAY SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS STRUGGLING TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION, AND MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH IS DISPLACING CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN INTERACTION WITH
A CIRCULATION TO THE WEST ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
TROUGHING, AND EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION SEVERAL DAYS LATER, WHILE
OTHERS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OR DEVELOP INVEST 96W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 162.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.