JTWC 18Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.9N 117.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CWB 18日上午發布"熱帶性低氣壓特報"

熱帶性低氣壓特報
發布時間：2018/06/18 09:17

熱帶性低氣壓９９８百帕，在北緯２２．５度，東經１１７．０度，即在鵝鑾鼻西方３９０公里的海面上，向東北移動，時速１５公里，請在臺灣海峽、東沙島海面及廣東海面航行及作業船隻特別注意。

氣象局09:50發布強風特報

陸上強風特報
熱帶性低氣壓及其外圍環流影響，今（１８日）下午起臺灣各地（含蘭嶼、綠島）沿海空曠地區、鄰近海域及澎湖、金門、馬祖易有９至１０級強陣風，沿海地區並有較大風浪，海邊活動請注意安全。

EC系集
預估朝福建沿海到台灣海峽間通過

JMA發布W。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 20.4N 114.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

氣象局的WRF模式預報顯示96W明天下午還蠻接近台灣的，而且低壓的螺旋性特徵還蠻明顯的

不過雨量預報除了南部山區之外，其他地區倒是沒反應出比較多的累積雨量，可能預計快速通過福建沿海或內陸吧~



持續觀察看看

低層環流滿完整的，但還是稍狹長一些
會不會有超乎預期的發展呢?繼續看下去~!

評級再提升至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 114.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY
164 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 170230Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES THERE IS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A
NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 170226Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEPICTS THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM IS THE ONLY OUTLIER AND INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

補充：JMA已於04Z天氣圖升為TD