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96W JMA:TD[W] 引進西南氣流 為台灣西南部注入不少雨量

簽到天數: 2088 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2018-6-17 08:14 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:96 W
名稱:
96W.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 06 17 06
升格熱低日期:2018 06 17 12
撤編日期  :2018 06 19 20
登陸地點  :中國 福建省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):20 kts
海平面最低氣壓1000 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
96W.INVEST.15kts-1000mb-19.3N-113.5E

20180616.2007.f16.x.ir1km_bw.96WINVEST.15kts-1000mb-193N-1135E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自 : JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-6-17 11:29 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.6N 114.3E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 16/2245Z WINDSAT
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH DISORGANIZED BANDING ELSEWHERE. A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

96W_gefs_latest.png

20180617.0300.himawari-8.ircolor.96W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.19.5N.114.1E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-6-17 13:33 | 顯示全部樓層
評級再提升至Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 114.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY
164 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 170230Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES THERE IS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A
NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 170226Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEPICTS THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM IS THE ONLY OUTLIER AND INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

LATEST.jpg

ts1p-2018-06-17-13-00.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif

補充:JMA已於04Z天氣圖升為TD
18061712.png
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簽到天數: 1988 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2018-6-17 15:14 | 顯示全部樓層
35427411_2453915361289123_489873958212993024_o.jpg LATEST.jpg

低層環流滿完整的,但還是稍狹長一些
會不會有超乎預期的發展呢?繼續看下去~!

點評

今年的梅雨超戲劇性演出 XDD  發表於 2018-6-17 15:26
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簽到天數: 136 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

Jimmy|2018-6-17 21:07 | 顯示全部樓層
氣象局的WRF模式預報顯示96W明天下午還蠻接近台灣的,而且低壓的螺旋性特徵還蠻明顯的
WRF_20180617.gif
不過雨量預報除了南部山區之外,其他地區倒是沒反應出比較多的累積雨量,可能預計快速通過福建沿海或內陸吧~
QPF_ChFcstPrecip_6_18.jpg

QPF_ChFcstPrecip_6_24.jpg
持續觀察看看






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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-6-17 23:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA發布W。
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 20.4N 114.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

18061721.png

LATEST.jpg

20180617.1430.himawari-8.ircolor.96W.INVEST.20kts.1000mb.20.3N.115.2E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 1988 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2018-6-17 23:09 | 顯示全部樓層

esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.96W.2018.096.png

EC系集
預估朝福建沿海到台灣海峽間通過

點評

6/18無法增強的話,就很難命名為巴比侖  發表於 2018-6-18 04:17
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簽到天數: 136 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

Jimmy|2018-6-18 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Jimmy 於 2018-6-18 10:13 編輯

氣象局09:50發布強風特報
陸上強風特報
熱帶性低氣壓及其外圍環流影響,今(18日)下午起臺灣各地(含蘭嶼、綠島)沿海空曠地區、鄰近海域及澎湖、金門、馬祖易有9至10級強陣風,沿海地區並有較大風浪,海邊活動請注意安全。










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