WTPN21 PHNC 100730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 101.9W TO 13.9N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 102.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8N 102.4W, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
VALLARTA, MEXICO. CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
CONVECTION WITH LIMITED TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND
TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110730Z.//
NNNN
1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
