TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.1S
163.1E AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORT. TD06F SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE OUT FLOW. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW, BUT IS MODERATE TO HIGH THEREAFTER.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 161.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070216Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 91P
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, SHIFTING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 54. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 060600Z-070600ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 161.4E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060311Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 91P WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU
72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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