jrchang5

BoM已升格為熱帶低壓並編號08U，看好未來發展。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0219 UTC 23/02/2020
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 118.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [80 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  23/0600: 12.8S 118.9E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]: 1002
+12:  23/1200: 12.9S 118.8E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]: 1001
+18:  23/1800: 13.2S 118.7E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]: 1000
+24:  24/0000: 13.4S 118.4E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]: 1000
+36:  24/1200: 13.9S 117.9E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  996
+48:  25/0000: 14.1S 117.6E:     120 [220]:  055  [100]:  986
+60:  25/1200: 14.1S 116.8E:     140 [255]:  060  [110]:  983
+72:  26/0000: 14.1S 115.9E:     155 [290]:  070  [130]:  976
+96:  27/0000: 14.5S 114.6E:     200 [370]:  060  [110]:  983
+120: 28/0000: 14.7S 113.8E:     290 [535]:  040  [075]:  996
REMARKS:
Tropical low 08U has shown signs of development over the past 12 hours, with
convection consolidating closer to LLCC.

Location has been determined by microwave and visual imagery.

System has been analysed with a CI/FT of 1.5, and combined with recent
scatterometer passes the max winds are estimated to be 25 knots [10 min].

The environmental conditions in the short term are favourable for development.
SSTs are above 30C, and TPW  shows the system in a pocket of moisture though
there is peripheral dry air. Shear is low [less than 20kts] in the vicinity of
the system and an upper trough to the west is enabling good outflow.

Due to it's small size, rapid intensification is possible if it remains pouched
in low shear and sheltered from dry air. Forecast track has intensification to
Wednesday, then an expected weakening trend due to the effects of increasing
shear, dry air as moves west, and the potential interaction with 07U.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC22/2200Z評級Low

ABIO10 PGTW 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/222200Z-231800ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.8S 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
221841Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING, WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED BY FLARING CONVECTION. 99P IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
90S WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING
SLIGHTLY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
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