H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN.DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.0. MET YIELD A 4.5 AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS T-NUMBER CHANGE OF 1 OVER 6 HRS.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0736 UTC 29/02/2020
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 111.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [312 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 29/1200: 15.4S 111.0E: 030 [055]: 035 [065]: 996
+12: 29/1800: 15.2S 110.8E: 040 [075]: 035 [065]: 998
+18: 01/0000: 15.1S 110.7E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 01/0600: 15.0S 110.6E: 065 [120]: 030 [055]: 999
+36: 01/1800: 15.0S 110.4E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 1000
+48: 02/0600: 15.0S 110.2E: 115 [215]: 025 [045]: 1000
+60: 02/1800: : : :
+72: 03/0600: : : :
+96: 04/0600: : : :
+120: 05/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand has weakened below TC intensity and now only has
gales primarily northwest of the centre. The circulation was well located by
visible imagery over open waters well to the north of the Australian mainland.
The centre is exposed southeast of the deep convection.
Although the intensity is estimated at 40 knots, scatterometry [ASCAT-A and B]
indicate gales are now restricted to mainly northwest of the centre under the
deep convection.
Dvorak analysis: CI held at 3.0 above FT of 2.5 using shear pattern [centre
within 30nm of dense overcast].
Being such a small system - gales have been within 30-40nm of the centre
throughout most of its lifetime, the circulation has not been able to withstand
the combined effects of moderate northeasterly shear and dry air that has
finally been ingested into the circulation core. While vigorous convection is
likely in the northwest sector which may prolong gales for the next 12 hours or
so, it is unlikely that the circulation can recover to redevelop overnight.
The system should be steered to the northwest under the influence of the
mid-level ridge to the southwest.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
