JTWC發佈Final Warining

01S ALICIA 201117 0600 17.0S 71.7E SHEM 35 999

巔峰已過,逐漸減弱,對流開始被從中心切離,JTWC12Z調降定強至55節

01S ALICIA 201116 1200 16.5S 72.0E SHEM 55 986

JTWC18Z升格C1,定強65KT

SH, 01, 2020111518,   , BEST,   0, 142S,  732E,  65,  986, TY,  64, NEQ,   15,   20,   20,   20, 1007,  180,  20,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     ALICIA, M,

MFR18Z升格中度熱帶風暴,命名Alicia
而在同一時間，JTWC18Z亦升格其為01S

EC又再度急不可奈的幫忙JTWC升格了01SXD

92S INVEST 201112 1800 4.8S 87.1E SHEM 25 1006

MFR編號擾動區第1號

JTWC0930Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 120930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 89.7E TO 6.4S 82.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.7S
89.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW. A 120720Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL
SIDES. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130930Z.//
NNNN