周子堯@FB

  基本資料     
編號　　　　：90 W
擾動編號日期：2021 年 05 月 27 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 06 月 02 日 13 時
90W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-5.6N-158.4E

老農民版夜神月

一度被GFS寄予厚望的90W遭到撤編

dom

對流散盡，JMA00Z撤TD

WWJP27 RJTD 020000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 994 HPA
AT 42N 178E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING ENE 35 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 178E TO 41N 177W 39N 171W.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 178E TO 36N 172E 30N 164E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 164E TO 26N 153E 28N 139E 26N 129E 29N 118E
28N 112E 26N 106E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS
PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 138E 32N 152E 27N 152E 28N 139E
27N 135E 30N 135E 32N 138E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 141E 42N 141E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 31N 180E 26N 146E 27N 134E 32N
147E 38N 153E 38N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 28N 136E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 46N 161E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 55N 180E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 37N 149E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 58N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103) 1002 HPA AT 12.3N 122.3E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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JTWC01Z撤銷評級

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 140.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

JMA最新天氣預測圖預測+24H內便即將消散

老農民版夜神月

GFS新報已幾乎沒有任何系集成員支持發展

老農民版夜神月

JTWC再度評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.3N 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.  ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010400Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A 010004Z METOP-
B ASCAT IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 90W WITH
POTENTIAL MULTIPLE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER OVERALL ROTATION. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF
THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND THE SMALLER EMBEDDED FEATURES.  UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET, GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JMA天氣圖維持TD,並認為將於+48H左右消散