周子堯@FB

  基本資料     
編號　　　　：90 W
擾動編號日期：2021 年 05 月 27 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 06 月 02 日 13 時
90W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-5.6N-158.4E

dom

JTWC0130Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N
157.9E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 262110Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS STRONGER WINDS (20-25KTS)
NORTH OF THE CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD AS IT DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

dom

定強提升至25節

90W INVEST 210527 0000 5.7N 157.9E WPAC 25 1008

老農民版夜神月

GFS系集持續對其有所反應,有些甚至預報出較高的強度,但共通點是轉向點偏東,偏較遠洋轉向

GFS決定報則認為其轉向點將較為偏西,認為其將行進至菲東近海

老農民版夜神月

JMA12Z天氣圖,EC12Z決定報則仍只有報出99W,暫時還未出現90W的身影

周子堯@FB

JTWC 03Z 90W 評級 Medium，短期內向西移動

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 156.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 174
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 272330Z
ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED
BY 15-20 KTS WINDS AND STRONGER 20-25 KTS WINDS DISPLACED
APPROXIMATELY 60-120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
INVEST INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS PROVIDING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. DESPITE THIS DIVERGENCE IN
INTENSITY SOLUTIONS, ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

正宜27

GFS最新報預測將高強度從台灣東部外海北上 https://twtybbs.com/forum.php?mod=attachment&aid=MTAzMjgwfDkzOTlmMGUzYTFhOWM5MWM5N2ExNDVkNDI5ZDdiNDRkfDE3MzIyMDE5OTI%3D&request=yes&_f=.png

老農民版夜神月

GFS18Z最新預報及系集,決定報仍維持對90W後期強度的看好,系集則分為夭折及後期較高強度兩派