老農民版夜神月

與看好90W後後期強度發展的GFS不同
EC新報決定報預測其將夭折,系集則有部份成員支持發展,但暫時尚沒有支持99W發展的成員多

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JTWC06Z發佈TCFA

老農民版夜神月

GFS大部分系集向支持04W(99W)的方向靠攏,支持90W的系集明顯有所減少
(EC最新系集)

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JMA00Z升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 149E WEST SLOWLY.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.4N 149E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTH OF
GUAM, IS NO LONGER A CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS. JTWC WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER CHANGES OR DEVELOPMENT.

老農民版夜神月

JMA天氣圖維持TD,並認為將於+48H左右消散

老農民版夜神月

JTWC再度評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.3N 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.  ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010400Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A 010004Z METOP-
B ASCAT IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 90W WITH
POTENTIAL MULTIPLE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER OVERALL ROTATION. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF
THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND THE SMALLER EMBEDDED FEATURES.  UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET, GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

老農民版夜神月

GFS新報已幾乎沒有任何系集成員支持發展