t02436

MFR 06Z編號擾動區6號首報預報將以40KT 登陸馬達加斯加

ZCZC 113
WTIO30 FMEE 140713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  6
2.A POSITION 2015/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 39.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL
SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/14 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/01/15 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/01/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/16 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/16 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
72H: 2015/01/17 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AFTER BEING BACK OVER SEAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SYSTEM TAKES BENEFIT
OF AN EFFICIENT MONSOON FLOW EQUATORWARD.
THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWS ON MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
ANIMATION AN IMPROVING ORGANIZATION.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING NEAR THE CENTRE BUT LARGE
SCALE THUNDERY ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCES.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS NORTH,
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR UNDER THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS HOWEVER VERY
LIMITED.
SYSTEM SHOULD REGULARLY INTENSIFY UNTIL ITS LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN
MADAGASCAR SHORELINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THAT THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD RESIST TO THE CROSSING PATH OVER MADAGASCAR AND TO
EXTEND UP TO DOWN  TO REFORM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVERSEA EAST
OF MADAGASCAR THIS WEEK-END.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

JTWC評級Low

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
38.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 37.5E, APPROXIMATELY 556 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRADDLING THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE MSI AND A 131426Z NOOA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEAL THE LLCC IS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT SPANS
ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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