24S.Quang 快速減弱中心登陸

t02436 · 2015-4-27 15:02

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-5-2 12:41 編輯

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋
編號  : 21 U ( 24 S )
名稱  : Quang

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 04 月 27 日 13 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 04 月 29 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 05 月 02 日 10 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞西澳州 Exmouth Gulf

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：115  kts ( CAT.4 )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) : 105  kts ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：945  百帕

  討論帖圖片
98S.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.13.1S.114.1E
以上資料來自 :BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

ben811018 · 2015-5-1 13:28

逐漸減弱中，預計在今天深夜到明天凌晨登陸澳洲西岸

typhoonsarecool · 2015-4-30 18:34

本帖最後由 typhoonsarecool 於 2015-4-30 18:58 編輯

4/30下午3時澳洲氣象資料

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGIONIssued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 0716 UTC 30/04/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.7S Longitude: 109.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots [270 km/h]
Central Pressure: 945 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]                Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]             Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]                   Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]                Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]                                        Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.5/D3.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]

甜心 · 2015-4-30 15:34

ben811018 · 2015-4-30 12:50

增強速度相當快已達顛峰～

蜜露 · 2015-4-30 11:40

Quang 的風眼打開了,這次開的是針眼..

今年南半球風季尾聲最後一個焦點.可能就是這隻.
也有機會成為BOM的風王 = =

t02436 · 2015-4-30 09:59

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-4-30 10:05 編輯

BoM升格四級強烈熱帶氣旋

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0152 UTC 30/04/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.0S
Longitude: 109.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: south [175 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS  STT:D1.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  30/0600: 17.6S 109.4E:    025 [050]:  100  [185]:  949
+12:  30/1200: 18.2S 109.7E:    040 [070]:  090  [165]:  956
+18:  30/1800: 18.7S 110.1E:    050 [095]:  080  [150]:  965
+24:  01/0000: 19.4S 110.5E:    065 [120]:  070  [130]:  974
+36:  01/1200: 20.5S 111.1E:    085 [155]:  050  [095]:  989
+48:  02/0000: 22.2S 111.7E:    105 [190]:  035  [065]:  999
+60:  02/1200: 24.1S 113.3E:    125 [230]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72:  03/0000: 26.3S 116.0E:    140 [265]:  025  [045]: 1006
+96:  04/0000: 30.5S 130.4E:    185 [345]:  020  [035]: 1009
+120: 05/0000:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Severe TC Quang has undergone a period of rapid intensification over the past 12
to 18 hours.

Microwave imagery over the last 6 hours has shown a very tight upper level
circulation, and also a tight low level circulation in the 1806Z GMI scan which
was able to resolve it. IR satellite imagery is showing a clear eye.

For Dvorak, EIR satellite imagery is also showing a clear eye with DT's of 6.0
to 6.5, with CI constrained to 6.0.

Current intensity is set to 100 knots. Raw ADT [CIMMS and NESDIS] are 6 and 6.3,
but are constrained due to the rapid intensification of the system.

Latest satellite imagery indicates a slight weakening over the last hour or two.
Shear at 18Z was about 15 knots in the same direction as the systems motion.
However, shear is forecast to steadily increase from now onwards. This, along
the with the dry air on the western periphery is expected to bring about a rapid
weakening over the next 48 hours, with the system forecast to drop below
tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday morning.

Model guidance is not handling the intensity of the system due to its small
size. However, they are fairly consistent with respect to the forecast motion.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

JTWC 00Z 評價115Kts

18Z預報

Meow · 2015-4-30 03:22

Quang真的duang了，中心加特效上去。:lol

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1900 UTC 29/04/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 108.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  30/0000: 16.8S 108.9E:    030 [060]:  085  [155]:  961
+12:  30/0600: 17.4S 109.2E:    045 [080]:  085  [155]:  962
+18:  30/1200: 18.0S 109.7E:    055 [105]:  080  [150]:  964
+24:  30/1800: 18.5S 110.1E:    070 [130]:  070  [130]:  972
+36:  01/0600: 19.6S 110.8E:    090 [165]:  050  [095]:  986
+48:  01/1800: 20.9S 111.1E:    110 [200]:  040  [075]:  994
+60:  02/0600: 23.1S 111.9E:    130 [235]:  030  [055]: 1001
+72:  02/1800: 24.8S 114.1E:    145 [270]:  025  [045]: 1004
+96:  03/1800:          :             :          :
+120: 04/1800:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Severe TC Quang has undergone a period of rapid intensification over the past 12
hours. A clear eye is now apparent on EIR satelite imagery, and the 1155UTC
TC_SSMISS microwave imagery showed an intense and well-defined low level centre.
Dvorak analysis is based on an eye pattern, with a black or light grey eye
embedded within cold medium grey over the past few hours, and this yields DTs
between 5.5 and 6.5. MET is 5.0 and PAT is 5.5, with FT/CI constrained to 5.0.
Objective guidance is struggling with the system. Current intensity is 80 knots
[10 minute mean winds]. ADT has failed to detect the eye, and as a result has CI
only around 4.0.

The broadscale environment is favourable for the system to maintain intensity
and possibly develop further in the next 12-24 hours - wind shear being low,
strong upper level ouflow and SST above 28 degrees. Thus intensification to
category 4 intensity 90knots] cannot be ruled out in the short term.

However, dry air that is currently evident on the western periphery is expected
to combine with increasing wind shear from late Thursday and particularly during
Friday resulting in rapid weakening below cyclone intensity prior to landfall.
Nevertheless gales may persist in the southeast quadrant and hence there remains
the possibility of gales or near gale-force winds about the northwest of the
state late Friday and into Saturday morning.

The track is likely to continue towards to the south Thursday morning before
turning towards the southeast Thursday afternoon as the dominant steering ridge
shifts more to the east of the system ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough in
the Indian Ocean.

Model guidance still has a reasonable spread of possible tracks and intensities.
Models taking the system east of the forecast track are stronger [relative to
the other models], while models west of the forecast track have the weaker
systems. This is consistent with the shear being weaker in the east and strong
in the west.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.