蜜露

GFS 預測到240+小時內 , 他都會是增強狀態. 長時間巔峰的類型.

周遭的環境都還行 , 風切低 . 輻散40左右.






底層重新調整好了 , 高層也逐漸開眼. 強度將要開始真正的增強

Meow

結構調整得不錯，風眼開始清空。

tpm630

風眼開了，T值噴了

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  17 MAR 2016    Time :   030000 UTC
      Lat :   10:32:24 S     Lon :   84:18:13 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.1 / 969.4mb/ 92.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.1     6.1     6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -45.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE  

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

老J目前是分析到5.5。爆發的時候到了

TPXS10 PGTW 170253

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE)

B. 17/0230Z

C. 10.38S

D. 84.19E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURR BY W YIELDS A
DT OF 6.0. PT YIELDS A 5.5 WHILE MET YIELDS A 5.0. DBO 5.5 AS
DT HAS JUMPED ONE WHOLE T-NUMBER IN 3HRS, WAITING FOR ANOTHER
DT OF A 6.0 FOR CONFIRMATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/0020Z  10.47S  84.20E  SSMS
   17/0048Z  10.42S  84.23E  WIND
   17/0142Z  10.53S  84.25E  SSMS


   MARTINEZ

Meow

法國判斷強烈熱帶氣旋，直升110節。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 170645 RRA
   
2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20152016
   
5. 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (EMERAUDE)
   
6. 2.A POSITION 2016/03/17 AT 0600 UTC:
   
7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 84.1 E
   
8. (TEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE
   
9. DEGREES EAST)
   
10. MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
    
11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.5/6 H
    
12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
    
13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
    
14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
    
15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
16. 28 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 150
    
17. 34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 110
    
18. 48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 70
    
19. 64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 50
    
20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
    
21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
22. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
23. 12H: 2016/03/17 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
24. 24H: 2016/03/18 06 UTC: 10.7 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
25. 36H: 2016/03/18 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
26. 48H: 2016/03/19 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
27. 60H: 2016/03/19 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 88.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
28. 72H: 2016/03/20 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
29. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
30. 96H: 2016/03/21 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 87.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
31. 120H: 2016/03/22 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
    
32. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
33. THE SATELLITE AND MW PRESENTATION HAS CLEARLY IMRPOUVED AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE EYE HAS WARMED INTO A VERY COLD CDO IN IR CHANEL. THE LAST SSMIS DATA OF 01H42Z SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE BUILDING OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND THE CDO, THAT MAY PREDICT THE BEGINING OF A EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
    
34. 
    
35. EMERAUDE SEEMS TO BE QUITE STATIONARY ON THE VERY LAST SATELITE IMAGERY, AND SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS NORTH-EAST. DURING THE WEEK-END, THE TRACK SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DIFFER SOMETIMES STRONGLY ABOUT THE FORWARD SPEED LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST MEAN TRACK FROM GFS-UK-EURO AND GFS-EURO.
    
36. 
    
37. ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONDUCIVE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A STILL IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS DUE TO THE REMOTE EFFECT OF A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE LATER THIS WEEK-END ESSENTIALLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY VWS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD PASS OVER SELF-INDUCED COOL WATERS. MOREOVER, THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS, SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH IS VERY LIKELY WITH MATURE SYSTEM BUT WITH POOR FORECAST SKILL, COULD REDUCE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATION (INCLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY, BRINGING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST.

複製代碼

Meow

索米NPP截取2016年3月17日強烈熱帶氣旋Emeraude。


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-03-17_0755Z.jpg

tpm630

JTWC於09Z上調125KTS，巔峰上看C4上限。未來一段時間會在原地龜速移動，再逐漸朝東南前進




入夜後對流反而有明顯減弱的現象

Meow

最近明顯減弱除了涼水上湧以外更主要的因素是垂直風切增強了，但由於系統範圍很小因此仍存在大起大落的機會。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 180052
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20152016
   
7. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (EMERAUDE)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2016/03/18 AT 0000 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1 S / 84.3 E
    
11. (TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : EAST 5 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 150
    
22. 34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
    
23. 48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 50
    
24. 64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
    
25. 
    
26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
    
27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
28. 
    
29. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
30. 12H: 2016/03/18 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
31. 24H: 2016/03/19 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 86.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
32. 36H: 2016/03/19 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
33. 48H: 2016/03/20 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
34. 60H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
35. 72H: 2016/03/21 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 86.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
36. 
    
37. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
38. 96H: 2016/03/22 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
39. 120H: 2016/03/23 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
40. 
    
41. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
42. T=CI=4.5
    
43. 
    
44. DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN BECAME UNSTABLE BECAUSE OF THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT, ANALYSED AT 15KT BY CIMSS (18Z). 1858Z AMSR2 MICRO-WAVES IMAGES SHOW THE ALTERATION OF EMERAUDE CORE WITH A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE EYE BETWEEN 37GHZ AND 89GHZ. HOWEVER, THANKS TO THE ACTIVE PHASE OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE, CLOUD TOPS GOT COLDER. MOREOVER, THE LAST IMAGES DO NOT SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A CIRRUS BOW ANYMORE, SUGEGSTING MAY BE A DECREASE OF THE VWS.
    
45. 
    
46. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, EMERAUDE STARTED TO TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. DURING THE WEEKEND, THE TRACK SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DIFFER SOMETIMES STRONGLY ABOUT THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE DIRECTION LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THEM AND ALSO FROM ONE RUN TO THE OTHER. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST MEAN TRACK FROM GFS-UK-EURO.
    
47. 
    
48. ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONDUCIVE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOVING SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BENEFIT FROM A DECREASE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN INCREASE OF THE POLAR SIDE DIVERGENCE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE LATER THIS WEEK-END ESSENTIALLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY VWS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD PASS OVER SELF-INDUCED COOL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PREVENT EMERAUDE FROM DEEPENING AGAIN. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATION (INCLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY, BRINGING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST.

複製代碼

tpm630

Emeraude中心繼續近似滯留，04Z強度下調105KTS


原本協助它快速增強的高層流出，現下反倒造成風切增強，因此風眼填塞、底層也崩了













除了本身長期滯留逐漸把冷水攪上海面，東邊還有個冷渦等著它...




未來環境有逐漸轉好的趨勢，強度可望再次回升，但要再創高峰難度不小