t02436

NHC 15Z直接將92L再度升格為02L，故原帖與Bonnie合併。

000
WTNT42 KNHC 021434
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low
pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent
organized convection near the center. Based on this, the system is
again being designated as a tropical depression.  The initial
intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on
surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity
estimate of 25 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 055/5.  Bonnie is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone
should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.  The
track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which
are tightly clustered.

The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters
for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light.
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during
that time.  After that, increasing shear and sea surface
temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a
remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 35.1N  75.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 35.3N  74.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 35.8N  72.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 36.1N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  04/1200Z 36.1N  66.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

t02436

21Z根據風場掃描再度升格為熱帶風暴，之後將受海溫與風切影響逐漸減弱。

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016

Somewhat unexpectedly, the convection associated with Bonnie has
increased this afternoon to the point where the satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB is now 35 kt.  In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass
near 1400 UTC showed several 35-kt vectors about 30 n mi southeast
of the center.  Based on these data, Bonnie is again designated as
a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 090/11.  Bonnie should move generally
eastward to east-southeastward between the subtropical ridge to the
south and a developing baroclinic low to the northeast.  The model
guidance has shifted a little southward since the last advisory,
and the new forecast track is nudged southward as well.

The current intensification is likely to be short lived, as Bonnie
will be moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 24C in
about 12 hours.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for weakening
through the forecast period, with Bonnie degenerating to a
post-tropical low between 12 and 24 hours.  The low should
subsequently weaken to a trough between 48 and 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 35.9N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 35.9N  68.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 35.6N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  05/0600Z 35.1N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  05/1800Z 34.6N  57.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN