1601 尼伯特最強首颱即侵台台東陣風57.2m/s破紀錄

廢柴上的小蘑菇 · 2016-7-6 10:35

聽說下一報還會在變強

7/05 20:00 --> 7/6 2:00 --> 7/6 8:00

43m/s 51m/s 53m/s

changbotsai · 2016-7-6 10:42

德沃克夏衛星分析:
UW - CIMSS
            ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
      ADT-Version 8.2.1
      Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
   Date :  06 JUL 2016 Time : 013000 UTC  Lat : 18:57:00 N    Lon :  129:35:48 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 909.5mb/149.0kt
Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
7.3    7.3    7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : +22.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

Scene Type : EYE
----------
哇中心眼溫己達+22.6度C. 很少見!!

周子堯@FB · 2016-7-6 10:44

krichard2011 · 2016-7-6 10:50

最新一張底層顯示演強制換似乎即將開始
外眼牆有開始為起來的跡象
就看尼伯特有沒有辦法熬過這一次
目前來看環境還是相當支持
除了途中有機會經過一段OHC相對較低的區域
但因速度相當快應該不至於對她產生太大影響
20160706.0056.metopb.89rgb.02W.NEPARTAK.140kts.918mb.18.7N.130.1E.100pc.jpg

20160706.0056.metopb.89rgb.02W.NEPARTAK.140kts.918mb.18.7N.130.1E.100pc.jpg

blackcat · 2016-7-6 11:29

Center Temp : +23.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

CMG+WMG

下一報老J沒給155~160kts我會翻臉

tpm630 · 2016-7-6 11:47

blackcat 發表於 2016-7-6 11:29
Center Temp : +23.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

CMG+WMG

老J連兩報T7.5
除非受置換影響，只要維持CMG+WMG，應該就頗有機會155上下XD

TPPN10 PGTW 060255

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 06/0230Z

C. 19.02N

D. 129.36E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS A 6.5 WHILE THE PT YIELDS AND INTENSITY OF 7.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2247Z 18.45N 130.50E SSMS

DREW