dom

數值很大差異:Q

ben811018

複雜的配置


菲律賓東南方的低壓９６Ｗ持續醞釀發展，環流雛型略趨明顯，但因為雲系廣泛，整合還需要點時間，發展速度較慢。９６Ｗ位於季風槽內，未來的體型會比較營(肥)養(胖)一些。
　
因日本南方持續有低壓滯留發展，影響到太平洋高氣壓的配置（非常畸形XD），９６Ｗ短期內沿著高壓邊緣移動，預計週末抵達巴士海峽到菲律賓東北方近海，至於後續是北轉，還是西進南海，則要看日本南方的低壓活動情況與太平洋高氣壓的強弱，這次較為複雜，需要多留意。
　
週末起台灣附近水氣也會增加，午後雷陣雨的機會更高，南部海域風浪增大，海上活動注意安全。

zjk369

明天預測有兩個熱帶低氣壓形成

ben811018

GFS這報倒向EC  XD~

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 129.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD BUT IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 281028Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SUITE SHOWS INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
AND CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, DECENT DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT
TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT BROAD
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

JMA升格熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 128E WNW SLOWLY.

ben811018

越來越有架勢了高層輻散通道打開
就差深層對流爆發然後鞏固大概就差不多了XD


這隻水氣豐沛
成形後環流會滿廣的
對台灣多少還是會有影響
多注意囉