小多啦

最新的風場掃描，不錯的風力(東北側有旗子?! 不過中心附近還是有點弱)

蜜露

渦度比較明顯 ,  但強度不大看好..






但天氣未來可能會有影響.
想起了以前1977年颱風薇拉的快速發展. 當時128度命名.碰到TUTT .影響台灣前就達到強颱..真的很迅速.
影響台北聽說宛如戰後.

ben811018

LLCC不錯
但風速還偏弱

小多啦

這是小程式今晚模擬的結果
不看好99W的強度

t02436

JTWC 19Z 評級Low

  (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.5N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN. A 061307Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE OF FLARING DEE
CONVECTION LEADING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROXIMATELY 370
NM TO THE NORTH. 850 MB VORTICITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE UPPER LOW IS
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY IS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 20-25 KNOTS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. DESPITE WARM 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
HAMPERED BY THE ENHANCED VWS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK
LLCC THAT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

JMA持續認定為熱帶低壓，尚未發布GW

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 23N 127E NORTH SLOWLY.

ben811018

【熱帶性低氣壓９９Ｗ最新動態】
熱帶性低氣壓９９Ｗ上午位於台灣東方海域，
過去六小時緩慢偏北進行，從可見光雲圖可看到，
他的低層環流中心(LLCC)相當明顯，但缺乏深層對流進一步鞏固，
主因是在北方的冷心低壓帶來的乾空氣抑制對流所致。
　
不過，最近幾個小時觀察，冷心低壓與99W開始有了「互動」，
或是說，冷心低壓正在「找褲子」穿啦！
預計接下來的大氣環境會逐漸改善，９９Ｗ有小幅的發展空間，
是否成為颱風仍有待觀察，機會雖低但仍不排除，
距離台灣很近，需多留意。
　
９９Ｗ未來２４小時緩慢偏北移動，
隨著東方的奧麥斯颱風北上，
高壓重新增強，９９Ｗ將沿著高壓邊緣轉西進行，
星期二靠近台灣北部海面。
　
未來幾天受到受到９９Ｗ外圍雲系影響，
各地天氣相當不穩定，下雨機會增加，
其中午後對流雲系發展較旺盛，請注意瞬間大雷雨，
雖然各地全天都有下雨機會，
但由於雲系較分散，天氣變動相當快，時晴時雨，
外出時請記得攜帶雨具，
沒有下雨時炎熱，記得多喝水喔！

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY
195 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT AND
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH DUE TO 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 070133Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWED AN
ORGANIZED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THE LLCC DUE TO GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSISTED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK LLCC THAT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE WELL
DEFINED LLCC AND MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.