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1607 璨樹 沿日本東方近海快速北上 登陸北海道後轉化溫氣

簽到天數: 1763 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

blackcat|2016-8-12 03:23 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC:MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 138.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY
390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES DEPICT LOW AND MID-
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH INCREASED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
EVIDENT ON A 111346Z RSCAT PASS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
POINT SOURCE FIVE DEGREES WEST OF THE LLCC SUSTAINING THE CURRENT
CONVECTION, LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OHC CONTENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
NEAR THE MARIANAS THEN POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. GIVEN THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
79_26427_dfcb4d3744577c7.jpg

還有EC12Z新報有點驚悚 時間還久別當真
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簽到天數: 161 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2016-8-12 07:31 | 顯示全部樓層
發布TCFA~~
WTPN21 PGTW 112130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 138.1E TO 17.9N 141.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 138.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 138.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY
375NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111914Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT
CONSOLIDATED LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING, DECREASED YET
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION IN LIEU OF DIURNAL MAXIMUMS AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON A 111346Z RSCAT
PASS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OHC CONTENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST THE
MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122130Z.//

79_86846_3eeca7b35f6dcb3.gif
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簽到天數: 1980 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2016-8-12 11:14 | 顯示全部樓層
20160812.0040.mta.ASCAT.wind.93W.INVEST.20kts-1003mb.160N.1384E.25km.jpg
20160811.2152.f18.91pct91h91v.93W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.15.5N.138.6E.100pc.jpg

熱帶性低氣壓93W目前位於關島西方海域,
過去中心近似滯留,系統環流雖然相當廣泛,
但環流結構鬆散,型態稍差,仍需近一步整合。
至於未來移動方向,以目前資料研判,
短期內將沿著高壓邊緣朝東北移動,
後期是繼續北上還是西折,
這部分取決於高壓強弱及整個大低壓帶的發展,
變數非常高,仍有待觀察。
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簽到天數: 1704 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2016-8-12 16:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA最新報.GEF.JTWC
熱帯低気圧
平成28年08月12日16時20分 発表
<12日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 16度55分(16.9度)
        東経 137度35分(137.6度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
<13日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 18度40分(18.7度)
        東経 140度25分(140.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
93W_gefs_latest.png
abpwsair.jpg
a-00.png
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簽到天數: 1980 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2016-8-12 18:20 | 顯示全部樓層
擷取.PNG
EC 00Z

誤差圈很大
信心度極低


點評

兩大機構逐漸趨於一致,應該往日本去,強度則大看衰  發表於 2016-8-13 07:46
目前到底是走橘色還是白色,還是等颱風形成再來注意!再加上後續怎麼走,需要在它北上時,最大關鍵。  發表於 2016-8-12 21:00
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簽到天數: 31 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

小多啦|2016-8-12 23:21 | 顯示全部樓層
這是小程式今晚模擬的結果
預測93W巔峰強度可達100KTS (一分鐘平均)
前提是最後走西進路線 如果北轉大概只有65KTS的強度
每個Model詳細的路徑及強度預測如最下面的附件(TXT文字檔)
TCFS 201608121200-3.jpg
TCFS 201608121200-4.jpg

Typhoon Predictor V5.00 201608121200.txt

59.92 KB, 下載次數: 8

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簽到天數: 85 天

[LV.6]常住居民II

陳約禮@FB|2016-8-13 17:01 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z升格09W
WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122130Z AUG 16//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 122130)//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 140.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 140.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 20.6N 142.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 22.6N 143.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 24.8N 144.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 26.9N 144.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 29.9N 143.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 34.4N 141.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 40.5N 140.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 141.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A(WTPN21 PGTW 122130//
NNNN

首報巔峰僅望55KT
wp0916.gif 對流有漸漸包覆中心的趨勢
vis-animated.gif

rb-animated (1).gif



點評

首報巔峰常常都是低估的哈  發表於 2016-8-14 00:20
這種輕鬆上C1的貨色被老J評巔峰只值55kts...  發表於 2016-8-13 17:08
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簽到天數: 582 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-8-13 20:51 | 顯示全部樓層


看了渦度已經好了許多 , 也開始白了~
現在GFS支持往日本登陸機會增多了.  朝華東方向已經少了不少.
09W_gefs_00z.png


wgmsvor.GIF



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