1608 電母前期於南海北部滯留多時後登陸雷州半島與越南

Meow · 2016-8-16 17:42

ECMWF繼續調強，3天後巔峰976百帕，10天後到印巴交界。

t02436 · 2016-8-17 10:34

CMA 00Z正式升格熱帶低壓，預測24小時內增強為熱帶風暴。

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 170000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 04 INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC
00HR 21.1N 112.7E 994HPA 15M/S
MOVE W 6KM/H
P+12HR 20.4N 112.1E 994HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 20.9N 111.4E 990HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 20.8N 109.9E 988HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 20.7N 108.0E 982HPA 25M/S
P+60HR 20.8N 106.1E 980HPA 28M/S
P+72HR 21.1N 103.5E 996HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PB_20160817080000000.jpg

JMA續發W。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA
AT 21.1N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

1420鸚鵡 · 2016-8-17 11:45

HKO:T1

t02436 · 2016-8-17 21:36

JMA終於發布GW。

熱帯低気圧
平成28年08月17日22時30分発表

<17日21時の実況>
大きさ       -
強さ       -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域       南シナ海
中心位置       北緯 20度30分(20.5度)
東経 112度20分(112.3度)
進行方向、速さ       北西ゆっくり
中心気圧       992hPa
中心付近の最大風速       15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速       23m/s(45kt)

<18日21時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       トンキン湾
予報円の中心       北緯 20度05分(20.1度)
東経 109度10分(109.2度)
進行方向、速さ       西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧       990hPa
中心付近の最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径       200km(110NM)

JTWC 1330Z維持Medium評級。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.6N 116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY
68 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161914Z 85GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT POORLY
ORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED, AND SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING LOOSELY
AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT
ON THE 161344Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH DEPICTS WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS NEAR THE LLCC WITH 20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
BUT RESTRICTED POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2016-8-18 01:27

JTWC也終於發布TCFA。

WTPN22 PGTW 171730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171551Z AUG 16//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 171600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.2N 114.6E TO 20.2N 108.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8N 113.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.2N 113.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY
115 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171326Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A DEFINED LLCC WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOT) SOUTHWEST
MONSOON WINDS WRAPPING UP INTO THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ADDITIONALLY HONG KONG OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A 4MB DROP IN PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 23 KNOTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181730Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(INVEST 99W) LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 140.6E.//
NNNN

7369zy · 2016-8-18 08:53

稍早中國與HKO率先升格颱風了

1420鸚鵡 · 2016-8-18 09:41

JMA：電母

WTPQ21 RJTD 180000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1608 DIANMU (1608) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 180000UTC 20.8N 111.2E FAIR

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 240NM

FORECAST

24HF 190000UTC 20.5N 107.6E 50NM 70%

MOVE W 08KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

48HF 200000UTC 20.4N 102.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

台風第8号 (ディアンムー)
平成28年08月18日10時25分発表

<18日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
中心位置北緯 20度50分(20.8度)
東経 111度10分(111.2度)
進行方向、速さ西ゆっくり
中心気圧 985hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 440km(240NM)

<19日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域トンキン湾
予報円の中心北緯 20度30分(20.5度)
東経 107度35分(107.6度)
進行方向、速さ西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 980hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)

<20日09時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域ラオス
予報円の中心北緯 20度25分(20.4度)
東経 102度10分(102.2度)
進行方向、速さ西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 996hPa
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)