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yuloucn|2011-3-18 18:52
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WTIO30 FMEE 180648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/7/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 72.3E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 090 SE: 165 SO: 075 NO: 075
34 KT NE: 065 SE: 090 SO: 055 NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 930 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/18 18 UTC: 17.2S/69.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/03/19 06 UTC: 18.1S/66.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2011/03/19 18 UTC: 19.2S/63.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2011/03/20 06 UTC: 20.2S/61.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2011/03/20 18 UTC: 21.2S/58.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2011/03/21 06 UTC: 22.5S/56.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 22/03/2011 06 UTC: 25.1S/53.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
120H: 23/03/2011 06 UTC: 29.7S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.0
INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. VIS IMAGERY SHOW A
RATHER WELL DEFINED VORTEX WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO FROM THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS IS EVIDENT ON IR
IMAGERY SINCE THIS MORNING.
SUJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATION AT 40 KT IS SUPPORT WITH EQUIVALENT
ESTIMATIONS FROM PGTW (05:30Z) AND KNES(02:30Z)
MIMIC TPW SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND MAY IMPEDDING LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY CONVERGENCE FROM THE
MONSSON FLOW.
UPPER LEVELS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UP TO SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO A STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP
MID LATITUDES TROUGH.
LAST NWP OUTCOMES ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBROPICAL RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BEYOND SOME OF THE MODELS (INCLUDING CMWF FROM 12Z)
FORECAST A RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD AND OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM WEST-SOUT
H-WESTWARD. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT UNDER THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL GO DOWN IN THE LOWER LEVEL AND STAY TOWARDS THE WESTSOUTHWEST
BEFORE RECURVATURE IN THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
MID LAT TROUGH.
UNHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
_______________________________________________________
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T3.5/3.5 D0.5/24HRS
60kt-975hPa |
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