0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：90 S
擾動編號日期：2016 年 12 月 18 日 16 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 12 月 21 日 20 時
90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11S.129E

周子堯@FB

JTWC評級為LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.  
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A
182214Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
AROUND A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM DARWIN AIRPORT INDICATE A SLP NEAR 1002 MB WITH A
3-4 MB TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS LAND INTERACTION AND VWS DECREASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.