0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：10 F ( 95 P )
擾動編號日期：2017 年 02 月 08 日 10 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 02 月 10 日 20 時
95P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.19.6S.164.5E

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 164.3E
AT 072100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD10F MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

s6815711

JTWC 06Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8N 129.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY. THIS LLCC IS
POSITIONED ADJACENT TO STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW. A 070130Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE, AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK
WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

jwpk9899

已經到23S了 在南半球算很高緯了
整個LLCC都裸了 大致上快轉化了