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BOM:後熱帶氣旋
JTWC: FW100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A 100244Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS (WITH ISOLATED 40 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SSTS
DROPPING TO 25C. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND IS
FORECAST TO REACH FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15
FEET.//
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