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升格氣旋風暴，命名Mora。
TROPICAL STORM ‘MORA’ ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 28TH MAY 2017 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS OF 28TH MAY 2017
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARD DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 14 KMPH, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, 28TH MAY, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 16.0oN AND LONGITUDE 91.0oE, ABOUT 770 KM NEARLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA(42807) AND 700 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG(41978). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN LONGITUDE 91.0oE AND 92.0oE NEAR CHITTAGONG AROUND 30TH MAY 2017 FORENOON.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5. THE MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND (MSW) IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA. A BUOY NEAR LATITUDE 14o N AND LONGITUDE 86.8 oE REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 1001.0 HPA. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR LATITUDE 17.4o N AND LONGITUDE 89.1oE REPORTED MSLP OF 1002.3 HPA.
THE CONVECTION SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN. BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 12.00N TO 20.00N LONGITUDE 85.00E TO 92.00E. MINIMUM CTT IS ARROUND - 93 DEG C. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30-31oC. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS AROUND 15-20 KTS, VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-5 S-1, LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 10 X10-5 S-1 AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 20 X10-5 S-1. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 19.0oN IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. A TROUGH IN MIDDLE & UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LIES OVER EASTERN INDIA ALONG NEAR LONGITUDE 85.0oE. MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE NEAR 1. IT WOULD MOVE TO PHASE 3 WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 48 HRS. |
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