(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.3N 62.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 200
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN
A 051409Z WSAT PASS. A 051408Z 37GHZ CORIOLIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE AREA
OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING WEAKLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FAVORABLE,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLY HIGH AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 28 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
SLOW FORWARD MOTION WESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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