B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N
153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
SUGGESTS A TROPICAL WAVE AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE POOR
ORGANIZATION AT THE SURFACE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 153.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
180NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH INCREASED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. A RECENT 240001Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
PERSISTENT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WINDS AROUND THE LLCC WITH SOME 20 KNOT
WINDS LOCATED IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH 05 TO 10
KNOTS OF VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, BUT THE EFFECTS OF TUTT CELL JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ON
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TC
AFTER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 146.2E TO 15.8N 141.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A 242032Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY
237 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A FLARING AND FRAGMENTED CENTRAL CONVECTION
SHEARED EASTWARD OF THE LLC. THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. IN VIEW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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