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主要移去巴哈加利幅尼亞一帶

周子堯@FB

JTWC發布TCFA

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 96.2W TO 15.0N 99.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 96.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.4N 96.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1600 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
AND BROAD CIRCULATION WITH INCREASING CONVECTION. A 240107Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE CENTER AND BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A 231628Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SOME 20
KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST, ALONG THE COAST, AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WHILE REMAINING SMALL IN SIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

周子堯@FB

JTWC升格了

t02436

命名Dora，巔峰上看C1。

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250838
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone has been
intensifying. The overall coverage of the deep convection has been
increasing with more banding features noted than late yesterday.
Microwave and conventional satellite data also suggest that some
primitive inner-core features have developed. Based on the
increased central organization and a Dvorak classification of 2.5
from TAFB, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.

There are no obvious environmental impediments to further
strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear, high
mid-level moisture, and warm SSTs in the forecast. Guidance is in
good agreement on steady intensification, and Dora could become a
hurricane in a day or two. Thereafter, Dora should move across much
cooler SSTs and into a more dry and stable airmass, causing the
cyclone to weaken and eventually become a remnant low by day 4. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is adjusted a bit upward in agreement
with the HWRF, SHIPS and NOAA corrected-consensus models.

The initial motion is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A
large mid-level high centered over northwestern Mexico should
continue to steer Dora on this general course during the next couple
of days. The storm will likely take a westward turn by midweek once
the cyclone weakens and becomes more steered by the lower-level
winds. Model guidance remains in good agreement on this track,
resulting in high confidence that Dora will move parallel to the
coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds offshore.
Only cosmetic changes were made to the previous forecast, and the
NHC track prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 14.7N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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