周子堯@FB

基本資料    
編號　　　　：90 C
擾動編號日期：2017 年 08 月 15 日 15 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 08 月 18 日 10 時
90C.INVEST.25kts-NAmb-12.1N-141.9W


CPHC:20%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure, located about 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
remain disorganized early this evening. Environmental conditions
may become conducive for some gradual development of this system
later this week as it moves slowly toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

霧峰追風者

CPHC展望提升至40%，只是CPHC定位90C與91C中間...

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with
a broad area of disturbed weather around 900 miles southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii. Two weak lows are currently identified within
this area, but conditions are not conducive for both to develop.
However, development of a single low is possible over the next
couple of days as it drifts slowly toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

周子堯@FB

CPHC定位已回到90C上方，確定為90C!

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a broad area of low pressure around 860 miles southeast ofHilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days as it moves slowly toward the northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

霧峰追風者

CPHC 展望提升70%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii have become slightly better organized overnight.
Environmental conditions appear to remain conducive for
additional development of this system during the next few
days as it drifts toward the west-northwest. If the recent
trend of improved organization persists, a tropical
depression could form in this area later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

霧峰追風者

CPHC 展望降低至50%，發展緩慢。

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
flared overnight but remain poorly organized this morning.
Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for
additional development of this system for the next couple of days as
it drifts toward the west-northwest. After a couple of days,
conditions become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

asus5635

171330Z發布TCFA

2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

霧峰追風者

伴隨FNMOC和NRL撤编，CPHC也取消展望。