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03S.Ava 近岸對流爆發增強 侵襲馬達加斯加東岸南下轉化

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-12-25 09:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-27 15:03 編輯

  熱帶氣旋  
編號:01-20172018 ( 03 S )
名稱:Ava
Ava 2018-01-05 1021Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 12 25 09
JTWC升格日期:2018 01 03 02
命名日期  :2018 01 03 14
撤編日期  :2018 01 10 08
登陸地點  :馬達加斯加 圖阿馬希納

  巔峰時期資料  

近中心最大風速:
法國氣象局 (MFR):85 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):95 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓:965 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
1280px-Ava_2018_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
94S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10S.70E

20171225.0040.himawari-8.ir.94S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10S.70E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15

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zjk369|2017-12-28 07:30 | 顯示全部樓層
abpwsair 201712272315.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2017-12-28 07:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 23Z評級Low,機構看好發展
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9S
68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271654Z 89GHZ AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abiosair (1).jpg

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Meow|2017-12-29 23:06 | 顯示全部樓層
已編擾動區1號,首報即上看60kt。
SWI_20172018.png
WTIO30 FMEE 291339 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20172018
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  1
2.A POSITION 2017/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 67.5 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL
FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/12/30 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2017/12/30 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2017/12/31 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2017/12/31 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/01 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/01 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/02 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2017-12-31 09:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 20z評級Medium,機構看好發展
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 66.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 63.6E, APPROXIMATELY 589
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301445Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CENTRALLY
LOCATED FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. 94S REMAINS IN
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS)
ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
OVER THE NEXT 96HRS, BUT REMAIN MISALIGNED ON THE TIMING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg
94S_gefs_latest.png

點評

預計平均強度75kts.970hpa及巔峰強度100kts.930hpa.非常看好發展.  發表於 2018-1-1 11:42
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t02436|2018-1-2 16:19 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 06Z升熱帶擾動,看好登陸前命名。
ZCZC 838
WTIO30 FMEE 020631 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  1
2.A POSITION 2018/01/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 54.4 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL
FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/02 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2018/01/03 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/03 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/01/04 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/04 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0
NNNN

SWI_20172018.png

20180102.0730.msg-3.ircolor.94S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.15.5S.54.7E.100pc.jpg

點評

TCFA [attachimg]75865[/attachimg] [attachimg]75864[/attachimg]  詳情 回復 發表於 2018-1-2 17:10
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-1-2 17:10 | 顯示全部樓層
t02436 發表於 2018-1-2 16:19
MFR 06Z升熱帶擾動,看好登陸前命名。

TCFA
sh942018.20180102082737.gif

20180102.0310.f17.91pct91h91v.94S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.15.3S.56.3E.045pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-1-3 03:35 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-1-3 05:10 編輯

JTWC 18Z升格"03S",趨向馬達加斯加中部。
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 53.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 53.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 15.6S 52.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 16.3S 52.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 16.9S 51.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 17.4S 50.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.9S 48.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 21.6S 47.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 24.2S 47.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 021809Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. TC
03S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 03S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
NORTHEAST MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK
OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120. TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z
AND 032100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
020930).//
NNNN
sh0318.gif 20180102.1809.metopa.89rgb.03S.INVEST.35kts.1001mb.15.4S.53.3E.100pc.jpg 20180102.1830.msg-3.ircolor.94S.INVEST.35kts.996mb.15.4S.53.3E.100pc.jpg

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