霧峰追風者

  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號：09 U ( 05 S )
名稱 : Joyce

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 07 日 23 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 01 月 07 日 15 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 01 月 10 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 01 月 11 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 01 月 15 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：澳洲 西澳大利亞州 黑德蘭

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：55 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
96P-INVEST-15kts-1004mb-13.7S-129.2E--編號錯誤

96S-INVEST-15kts-1008mb-13.7S-129.2E


以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

BoM 7日已經升格熱帶低壓，編號"09U"。

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Sunday 7 January 2018
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 10 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough lies to the north of Western Australia, with a weak Tropical Low (09U) near 13.6S 128.6E at 2pm WST Sunday, off the northeast Kimberley coast.
The low is expected to move southwest across the north Kimberley coast on Monday, before moving over water off the northwest Kimberley coast on Tuesday. There is only a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday, but conditions are favourable for development and there is a high chance of it developing into a cyclone by later on Wednesday. There is a significant risk of this system affecting communities over the far western Kimberley and/or the Pilbara later in the week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:High

霧峰追風者

BoM 開始發報，預計出海後命名，巔峰暫時上望澳式C2。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 09Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.9S 127.8E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND MODERATELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION CENTRALIZED TO THE NORTHWEST. A 080441Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION SLIGHTLY BANDING INTO THE LLC AND WEAK
INFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96S WILL
REMAIN ON LAND THROUGH TAU 42. BEYOND TAU 42, 96S QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER WATER INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH SYSTEM
BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 90.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z評級提升Medium，BoM 強度上看澳式C3。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.9S 127.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY
307 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 081337Z AMSU METOP-B 89GHZ PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL INDICATE THAT 96S WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AT ABOUT TAU 42, 96S WILL MOVE OVER WATER
AND CONSOLIDATE, EVENTUALLY REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z發佈TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 090230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 126.1E TO 17.7S 120.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 125.9E , APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 090045Z
AMSU METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO LLCC. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY
REVEALS AN AREA OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24 AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER
WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100230Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z升格"05S"，近中心風速只有20kts...

WTXS33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 123.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 123.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 18.0S 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 18.9S 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 20.3S 121.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 23.1S 119.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 27.9S 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 123.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER
LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER.
ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. A 091809Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ALSO
SHOWS WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON CYCLONIC
TURNING EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED IR LOOP AND BROAD TURNING EVIDENT IN
THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY (ABOM) ANIMATED RADAR LOOP. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NEAR THE AREA OF THE STORM WHICH ARE FROM 18 TO 22
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND ONCE IT TRACKS
OVER WATER, WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU
12. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THE TRACK
DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN AFTER
TAU 12 AND TRACK BACK OVER LAND SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU
24. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND, ENABLED BY A HIGH MOISTURE CONTINENTAL ENVIRONMENT, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

t02436

BoM已經評價30節，預計在清晨命名。

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm January 10	tropical low	16.4S	122.2E	45
+6hr	5 am January 11	1	16.7S	121.8E	80
+12hr	11 am January 11	1	17.1S	121.5E	100
+18hr	5 pm January 11	2	17.6S	121.4E	125
+24hr	11 pm January 11	2	18.1S	121.2E	145
+36hr	11 am January 12	3	19.2S	120.6E	180
+48hr	11 pm January 12	2	20.4S	119.8E	220
+60hr	11 am January 13	1	22.1S	118.5E	255
+72hr	11 pm January 13	tropical low	24.3S	117.3E	290