霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：90 W
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 12 日 00 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 01 月 16 日 15 時
90W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.1N.107.5E

zjk369

zjk369

12小時內 LOW--MEDIUM

霧峰追風者

zjk369 發表於 2018-1-12 10:53
12小時內 LOW--MEDIUM

補充JTWC 02Z評級提升Medium報文

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 1.6N 108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.3N 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM EAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT
DEFINED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN 112310Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A
BROAD LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK BUT SHOW THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL TRACK
TO THE WEST AND INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

13日21時升低壓區，預計明天升熱低

霧峰追風者

JTWC 取消評級。

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJAN2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
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