霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 P
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 31 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 02 月 03 日 08 時
96P.INVEST.30kts-1008mb-14.0S-147.0E

霧峰追風者

BoM 看好3天後有機會發展。

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 30 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Friday 2 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows currently in the region and none are expected to develop today or during Wednesday. Strengthening monsoon flow in the northwest Coral Sea will increase the chance of tropical cyclone development from Thursday, more likely along the monsoon trough.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:High

Conditions for tropical cyclone development, or a tropical cyclone to persist, remain favourable over the weekend, with the best chance along the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8S 151.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311953Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT WEAK TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. INVEST 96P IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 96P WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD, GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 72 TO 96
HOURS. BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
BEFORE TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 06z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 152.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.