TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 090136 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 977HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 165.5E AT
090000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS & IR/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDUCED IN RADIAL VERTICAL EXTENT WITH CLOUD
TOP WARMING. SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
MEAN. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5. PT=4.5 AND MET=3.5. FT BASED ON MET. CI HELD HIGH DUE TO
WEAKENING. THUS YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.1S 166.3E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.8S 167.8E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 23.2S 169.6E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 25.9S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
090800 UTC.
